Charity says NHS waits could exceed eight million by summer 2024

According to modelling work by charity The Health Foundation, NHS waiting lists could top eight million by next summer, even if doctor strikes cease.

It said that chronic shortages of NHS staff and funding are the main drivers, and that industrial action has only contributed a small amount, lengthening the list by about 210,000 or 3 per cent of the 7.75million total by August.

Both NHS England and the Health Foundation say NHS work has ramped up to see more patients and clear the backlog – monthly referrals for treatment are now back to pre-pandemic levels, and are growing at a faster rate, which is a “positive” sign.  However, the waiting list is still rising as the number of treatments does not yet exceed the number of referrals.

Charles Tallack from the Health Foundation, said that behind all the numbers are “people anxious for a diagnosis, patients in avoidable pain and lives put on hold”.

Patients are waiting for treatment ranging from surgery to remove cancerous tumours to hip replacements.

He said “The pandemic heaped further significant pressure on an already stressed system, but waiting lists were already growing long before Covid.”

Tim Mitchell, president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said “To tackle waiting lists in a meaningful and sustainable way, we need transformative solutions.

“Continuing to invest in surgical hubs across the country, focussing on the areas with the longest waits, would allow surgeons to operate more efficiently.  Hubs protect planned surgery from stoppages during busy periods when resources are diverted to emergency pressures.

“Crucially, we must also improve staff morale and retention.  The government’s commitment to grow the healthcare workforce is welcome.  However, recruiting new staff is only half of the solution.  Providing a supportive, well-resourced working environment is vital.”

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Posted by Karen Motley, Clinical Negligence Department, Chadwick Lawrence LLP (jacquelinevance@chadlaw.co.uk), medical negligence lawyers and clinical negligence solicitors in Huddersfield, Leeds, Wakefield and Halifax, West Yorkshire.

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